The Iowa Poll is a big deal. It is a photo of what Iowans think about the issues and candidates on the eve of important elections, such as when the Iowa caucuses are held in presidential years. Conducted by The Des Moines Register and the polling firm Selzer & Company, the Iowa Poll’s is one of the nation’s highly observed political barometers. It has shown to be reliable, and the results are typically viewed as an early indication of candidate viability and the strength of campaigns — particularly given the Iowa caucuses are the formal kicking off of the presidential nominating process.
Roots Back of Iowa Poll‘s
- Originally a creation of the Des Moines Register, the Iowa Poll itself dates back to the 1940s but commands greater attention, and has provided more fodder for speculation about presidential candidates, as Iowa’s first in the nation caucus has attracted more national attention from the late 20th century onward. One reason the poll’s is significant is its history: it traditionally takes the temperature of the electorate months before the caucuses and has been spot on in identifying the rise and fall of candidates. As an example, in 2008, the Iowa Poll indicated rising support for Senator Barack Obama among Iowa Democrats, which assisted in his winning both the caucuses and momentum. The poll, in 2016, identified changes in the Republican field as well as predicted Donald Trump would attract numerous Iowa Republicans.
The Iowa Poll Methodologically a Big Deal
- The Iowa Poll is a pretty big deal, methodologically. The poll, conducted by one of the best pollsters. Intends to be a cross-section of Iowans by demographics. It weighs factors like age, geographic distribution an important feature in a state like Iowa where rural and urban voters may diverge in their opinions gender, etc. Pollsters also frequently only sample likely caucus goers, and the Iowa caucuses have an in-person attendance requirement that tend to favor more dedicated or inspired participants during turnout.
- Key question in Iowa Poll that also asks voters how likely they are to really attend caucuses Unlike primaries, caucuses take more time and effort to vote in. Which helps the poll more closely approximate caucus day realities as opposed to overall voter support among registered voters. That will ensure that we catch early leaders and late surgers as candidates give their final pitches.
Despite Track Record
- Though generally reliable, the Iowa Poll has had its clunkers. We never released a pre caucus poll. Because we worried that one voter telling us Pete Buttigieg name was off from the list of compromised and the accuracy of the data.
- But the Iowa Poll is relevant anyway. This is important for candidates, a solid performance here earns them coverage, money and momentum. For voters and for analysts, the poll offers a glimpse of the Iowa scene and an early look at the national tableau. With the 2024 cycle underway, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top when the Iowa Poll due out.
